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To simplify the equations, subscripts have been omitted where there is no ambiguity.

As Physical Geography - River Load

However, there is a strict correspondence between the two. For example,? However, the results immediately generalize to the case of multiple predictor variables. There is, however, a simpler way. Finney 's [] function, g t , is equivalent to g m t , and Stuart and Ord [] employ s 2 to denote the MLE 2. Please note: The publisher is not responsible for the content or functionality of any supporting information supplied by the authors.

Any queries other than missing content should be directed to the corresponding author for the article. Volume 41 , Issue 7. If you do not receive an email within 10 minutes, your email address may not be registered, and you may need to create a new Wiley Online Library account. If the address matches an existing account you will receive an email with instructions to retrieve your username.

Open access. Water Resources Research Volume 41, Issue 7.

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Free Access. Timothy A. Cohn E-mail address: tacohn usgs. Tools Request permission Export citation Add to favorites Track citation. Share Give access Share full text access. Share full text access. Please review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article. Abstract [1] This paper presents an adjusted maximum likelihood estimator AMLE that can be used to estimate fluvial transport of contaminants, like phosphorus, that are subject to censoring because of analytical detection limits.

It can be expressed formally in terms of an integral:. Retransforming Rating Curve Estimates [14] In general, the rating curve provides unbiased estimates of ln L. Thus it is tempting to use the rating curve defined by equation 5 , with parameters estimated by ordinary least squares, to estimate a continuous trace of the instantaneous loads by replacing L t in equation 1 with. Estimation With Censored Data [15] Employing data subject to type 1 censoring requires care. Notation [16] Data subject to censoring can be characterized in various ways.

Likelihood Function [18] The likelihood function for complete independent samples is proportional to the product of the likelihood in this case, the probability density function, or pdf corresponding to each observation:.


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Load Estimation With Censored Data 4. Reparameterization of the Regression Model [27] AMLE load estimation begins with reparameterizing the linear model in terms of a new vector, denoted , defined in terms of and :. Asymptotic Distribution of [28] Under fairly general circumstances, the asymptotic distribution of and is multivariate normal [ Robinson , ], and therefore the distribution of is approximately multivariate normal [ Kotz et al.

Computing Sums of Loads [33] In computing annual or seasonal loads, one usually approximates the integral in equation 1 as a sum of loads corresponding to short intervals e. Uncertainty of AMLE Load Estimates [34] Understanding the uncertainty in load estimates is important when communicating load information, in designing efficient sampling programs [ Gilroy et al.

Estimating the Serial Correlation,? Simulated Populations [52] One hundred thousand replicate samples were generated, with samples of size 20, 40, and 80, corresponding to a regression model containing a constant and one nonconstant predictor variable intended to represent ln Q.

Discussion of Monte Carlo Results [59] The load estimators all performed similarly in terms of variance. Estimating the Uncertainty [65] Assuming that the lag one day serial correlation? Future Research [66] Work remains to be done in several areas. C t instantaneous constituent concentration at time t.

K number of predictor variables in regression. K u units conversion coefficient. L annual constituent load. A adjusted maximum likelihood load estimator.

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JK jackknife maximum likelihood load estimator. MVUE minimum variance unbiased load estimator. QMLE quasi maximum likelihood load estimator. RC rating curve load estimator. L t instantaneous constituent load at time t. MSE P mean square error of prediction of load. M expected value of. N number of observations used to calibrate regression model. Copper is about 5 to 10 times more toxic to aquatic life than zinc, but road runoff generally contains something like five times as much as zinc as copper. The zinc to copper ratio can be even higher than this in stormwater from other urban land uses.

Previous studies have found sediments in urban Auckland estuaries containing 12 to 35 parts per million of copper and 60 to parts per million of zinc. Marine life begins to be affected at concentrations of 34 and parts per million, for copper and zinc respectively. Moores says the tool aims to take into account the cumulative effect of contaminants rather than zinc or copper in isolation.

This is where the risk is greatest, based on the characteristics of both the runoff from the road and the characteristics of the receiving environment.

6.5 Account for relevant contaminants

The model does that by estimating in-stream copper and zinc concentrations relative to guideline safety concentrations. It matches those against the sensitivity of the receiving environment, which is based on existing modelled values of a macroinvertebrate community index. The model contains a number of linked modules and runs in readily available software platforms Excel and ArcGIS. Input data includes river flow estimates, assessments of estuary deposition rates, land use information, road traffic data and road drainage design details.

The tool can produce hotspot maps, showing the relative risk across sub-catchments. Users of the tool can then drill in to look at the road network within a given sub-catchment to look for the roads which generate the highest contaminant loads.


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Where the tool signals that road runoff presents a risk to receiving water bodies, Bannock says road drainage can be designed, or retrofitted, with stormwater treatment systems. Bannock says the study has been very successful, and is likely to play an increasing part in road management.

Even better, it can analyse catchments to identify which roads and urban areas are most troublesome. The study produced maps showing the combined risk posed to subcatchments in Porirua by runoff from roads and urban areas. According to Bannock, the diverse road and land mix of the area made it a good testing ground, being similar to many other New Zealand catchments. The best case scenario is to determine loads from actual data but more often models are used because there is not sufficient data to support direct load calculations.

Pollutant loads

Concentration units. Flow units.

Calculating contaminant loads

Conversion factor. Load unit.